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Keynes oder Mises? Wer hat die bessere Therapie für die Schuldenkrise?

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  • Henning Klodt

Abstract

Should fiscal consolidation and scaling down public debt be given highest priority in Euro countries in crisis? Or do they need a strong fiscal stimulus from expansive government spending for overcoming their deep recessions? Here, these questions are analyzed against the background of Keynesian and Austrian business cycle theories. It is argued that the prospects for Keynesian fiscal spending crucially depend upon the availability of competitive idle capacities. If such capacities have eroded during the long phase of cheap money, a fiscal stimulus would merely foster domestic inflation and foreign imports. The empirical evidence collected in this paper tends to support the latter view which is closer to the Austrians than to the Keynesians. The paper concludes that expansive government spending in Euro countries in crisis would postpone restructuring and would add further adjustment burdens to existing ones. Vor dem Hintergrund der keynesianischen und der österreichischen Konjunkturtheorie wird diskutiert, ob Haushaltskonsolidierung und Schuldenabbau in den Krisenländern des Euroraums oberste Priorität haben sollten oder ob es kräftiger Impulse durch staatliche Nachfrageprogramme bedarf, um diese Länder zunächst einmal aus ihrem konjunkturellen Tal herauszuholen. Dabei wird herausgearbeitet, dass die angemessene Antwort darauf nicht zuletzt davon abhängt, ob es in den Krisenländern überhaupt unausgelastete Kapazitäten in nennenswertem Umfang gibt, die konjunkturell wiederbelebt werden könnten, oder ob ihre Wirtschaftsstrukturen in den langen Jahren des billigen Gelds so stark erodiert sind, dass expansive Konjunkturprogramme weitgehend ins Leere laufen wür-den. Die in diesem Beitrag herangezogene empirische Evidenz spricht für letztere Sichtweise, die eher mit der österreichischen als mit der keynesianischen Sichtweise in Einklang steht. Mit einem konjunkturellen Strohfeuer würden die Krisen demnach nur unnötig verlängert, da die Strukturanpassung vertagt und auf heute schon bestehende Anpassungslasten weitere Anpassungslasten getürmt würden.

Suggested Citation

  • Henning Klodt, 2013. "Keynes oder Mises? Wer hat die bessere Therapie für die Schuldenkrise?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(2), pages 39-49.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:82-2-4
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdfplus/10.3790/vjh.82.2.39
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Lux, 2013. "Effizienz und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten: Stehen wir vor einem Paradigmenwechsel?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 93(1), pages 16-22, January.
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    Keywords

    Debt crisis; Euro area; Austrian business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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