Estimating centenarians in Mexico: Trends, geographic distribution, and data quality challenges

Background: The number of centenarians worldwide has increased considerably since 1950. However, most demographic research on population longevity has focused on high-income countries. As a result, little is known about centenarians in low- and middle-income countries, such as Mexico. Objective: This study assesses the quality of demographic data sources on centenarians in Mexico over time, estimates their population size in 2010, and analyzes their geographic distribution. Methods: We used individual-level data from the census and vital statistics records from 1990 to 2023. Using the extinct cohort method, we estimated the population of centenarians alive in the 2010 census. To examine spatial distribution, we computed centenarian rates by state. Results: Our findings suggest an increase in the number of deaths occurring at ages 100 and over after 2000. We estimate that in 2010 there were 6,300 female and 3,600 male centenarians in Mexico, which is half the number reported in the census. The female-to-male ratio is lower than that in low-mortality countries. Southern states show higher centenarian rates than northern states, which could be associated with differences in age reporting. Conclusions: The number of centenarians has increased in recent decades, with marked differences in longevity and data quality across the country. Contribution: We provide evidence of the increase in the number of centenarians and improvements in data quality for their study in a middle-income country such as Mexico. In contrast to high-income countries, we found a lower female-to-male ratio, highlighting the need to expand research on population longevity and age reporting worldwide to better understand their heterogeneity.