Where do we go from here? Partnership-parenthood trajectories of cohabitation as first union during young adulthood in the United States

Background: There has been considerable discussion about the role of cohabitation in family formation since the rise of cohabitation trends in Western societies. However, empirical evidence on how cohabitation-initiated partnership-parenthood trajectories unfold within specific cohorts remains limited. Objective: This study aims to identify typical partnership-parenthood trajectories following cohabitation as a first union in young adulthood and to examine how the likelihood of entering each trajectory varies by sociodemographic characteristics. Methods: We used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) to construct 60-month partnership-parenthood sequences after cohabitation as a first union. We applied sequence analysis and cluster analysis to identify typical patterns and estimated multinomial logistic regression models to examine the associations between sociodemographic characteristics and cluster membership. Results: We identified six typical partnership-parenthood trajectories among young cohabiters. College-educated cohabiters were more likely to enter the marriage-bound trajectory with delayed childbearing. Racial/ethnic minorities were less likely to enter trajectories involving eventual marriage and were overrepresented in trajectories characterized by non-marital birth and relationship instability. Conclusions: Our findings show that there is no single dominant partnership-parenthood pattern, indicating that cohabitation remains a liminal space between singlehood and marriage for the NLSY97 cohort. Sociodemographic differences are more pronounced in entry into certain trajectories than into others. Contribution: This study advances understanding of cohabitation’s role in family formation by offering a nuanced description of temporal patterns in partnership-parenthood trajectories. It also provides novel evidence for the “diverging destinies” thesis, highlighting how social inequality shapes early family formation.