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Frailty Modelling for Adult and Old Age Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Iliana Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Unobserved differences in individual's susceptibility to death are an important aspect in the analysis of contemporary mortality patterns. However, observed mortality rates at adult and old ages, which are usually well-described by a Gompertz curve, are often perceived inconsistent with frailty models of mortality. We therefore propose a modified DeMoivre hazard function that is suitable for the application of frailty models to adult and old ages. The proposed hazard increases faster than exponential, and when combined with unobserved frailty it can capture a broad range of patterns encountered in the analysis of adult mortality. Our application to Bulgaria during 1992--93 suggests that the stronger selection process in the male population, caused by an overall higher level of mortality, constitutes a primary mechanism leading to the convergence of male and female mortality at higher ages. Hence, the convergence between male and female mortality is not necessarily caused by a differential process of aging across sexes, but is merely a consequence of the different levels of mortality at adult ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2000. "Frailty Modelling for Adult and Old Age Mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(8).
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:3:y:2000:i:8
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2000.3.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriele Doblhammer, 1999. "Longevity and month of birth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(3).
    2. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabetta Barbi, 2003. "Assessing the rate of ageing of the human population," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Virginia Zarulli, 2016. "Unobserved Heterogeneity of Frailty in the Analysis of Socioeconomic Differences in Health and Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 55-72, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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