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Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantin Arbeev

    (Duke University)

  • Svetlana Ukraintseva

    (Duke University)

  • Lyubov S. Arbeeva

    (Ulyanovsk State University)

  • Anatoli Yashin

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Analysis of age-specific trajectories of cancer incidence rates for all sites combined (data source: International Agency for Research on Cancer) reveals a leveling-off and decline of the rates at old ages in different countries and time periods. We apply a non-linear age-period-cohort model (James and Segal 1982) to obtain declining cancer incidence rates at old ages. The age effects are represented by a power function of age in accordance with a multistage model of carcinogenesis (Armitage and Doll 1954). Applications to cancer incidence in England and Wales, Japan (Miyagi prefecture) and the USA (New York State and San Francisco) illustrate the approach. Further topics of research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(11), pages 273-300, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:11
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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/11/12-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(10), pages 237-272, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick M. Krueger & Samuel Preston, 2008. "Cohort fertility patterns and breast cancer mortality among U.S. women, 1948-2003," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(9), pages 263-284, April.
    2. Kosei Fukuda, 2008. "Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(4), pages 385-402, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    age-period-cohort models; cancer; incidence; multistage theory;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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