Econometric Modelling of the Relationship between Agri-Food Exports and Food Security: The Case of the Republic of Moldova

This paper examines whether agri-food export performance is linked to domestic food (in)security in the Republic of Moldova. Using annual time-series data for 2001–2024 on the value of agri-food exports (USD), agricultural production (MDL), and the share of the population facing food insecurity (percent), we apply Johansen cointegration tests and an error-correction model (ECM). The maximum-eigenvalue statistic indicates one cointegrating relationship among the variables, suggesting a stable long-run equilibrium. In the ECM, short-run changes in food insecurity are statistically significant, while changes in agricultural production are not, and the error-correction term is negative but statistically insignificant. Descriptively, Moldova’s export basket has shifted from a strong weight of food and beverages in the late 1990s to a more diversified structure in which plant products became prominent by 2024, alongside a gradual reorientation of export destinations towards the European Union. A key limitation is that official food insecurity series are available only from 2015; earlier values are completed through interpolation/extrapolation, so long-run coefficients should be interpreted with caution.