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Economic distress and voting: evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

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  • Hall, Andrew B.
  • Yoder, Jesse
  • Karandikar, Nishant

Abstract

We use nationwide deed-level records on home foreclosures to examine the effects of economic distress on electoral outcomes and individual voter turnout. County-level difference-in-differences estimates show that counties that suffered larger increases in foreclosures did not punish or reward members of the incumbent president's party more than less affected counties. Linking the Ohio voter file to individual foreclosures, difference-in-differences estimates show that individuals whose homes were foreclosed on were less likely to turn out, rather than being mobilized. However, in 2016 counties more exposed to foreclosures supported Trump at substantially higher rates. Taken together, the evidence suggests that the effect of local economic distress on incumbent performance is generally close to zero and only becomes substantial in unusual circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Andrew B. & Yoder, Jesse & Karandikar, Nishant, 2021. "Economic distress and voting: evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 327-344, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:327-344_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Denny,Elaine Kathryn & Dow,David & Levy,Gabriella & Villamizar-Chaparro,Mateo, 2022. "Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10020, The World Bank.
    2. Alexeev, Michael V. & Pyle, William & Wang, Jiaan, 2025. "Russian society, democratic values, and the legacy of the early-1990s economic shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Gabriele Gratton & Barton E. Lee, 2023. "Drain the Swamp: A Theory of Anti-Elite Populism," Discussion Papers 2023-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Ubay Pérez-Granja & Ascensión Andina-Díaz & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2024. "Volcanic eruptions and tourism prosocial consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 1973-2001, December.
    5. Sara M. Constantino & Alicia D. Cooperman & Thiago M. Q. Moreira, 2021. "Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2210-2235, September.
    6. Andreea Stancea & Aurelian Muntean, 2024. "Keep the (social) distance! Turnout and risk perception during health crisis," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.

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