IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/pscirm/v5y2017i03p447-465_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies

Author

Listed:
  • Schutte, Sebastian

Abstract

A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the quantitative research program on the micro-foundations of violence in civil conflict has crafted generalizable insights permitting out-of-sample predictions of conflict zones. The study region is delimited to ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that experienced full-blown insurgencies in the post-Cold War era.

Suggested Citation

  • Schutte, Sebastian, 2017. "Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 447-465, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:5:y:2017:i:03:p:447-465_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2049847015000849/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi, 2022. "Evaluating explanations for poverty selectivity in foreign aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 30-47, February.
    2. Sebastian Schutte & Claire Kelling, 2022. "A Monte Carlo analysis of false inference in spatial conflict event studies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Arzu Kibris, 2021. "The geo-temporal evolution of violence in civil conflicts: A micro analysis of conflict diffusion on a new event data set," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 885-899, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:5:y:2017:i:03:p:447-465_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/ram .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.