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Hazards or Hassles The Effect of Sanctions on Leader Survival

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  • Licht, Amanda A.

Abstract

Recent empirical work scrutinizes the ability of economic sanctions to destabilize targeted leaders. Limitations in data and modeling choices, however, may have inflated estimates of sanctions’ efficacy. I propose a unified theoretical model, incorporating the possibility that leaders targeted with threats and imposed sanctions differ in baseline risks from those who are not. I combine this hazards approach with an empirical strategy to account for differences in ex ante risks and improved data on leader failure. This approach uncovers a considerably more modest effect. Sanctions rarely destabilize their targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Licht, Amanda A., 2017. "Hazards or Hassles The Effect of Sanctions on Leader Survival," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 143-161, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:5:y:2017:i:01:p:143-161_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo de Bassa & Edoardo Grillo & Francesco Passarelli, 2021. "Sanctions and incentives to repudiate external debt," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 33(2), pages 198-224, April.
    2. Portela, Clara & Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S., 2023. "Sanctions effectiveness, development and regime type. Are aid suspensions and economic sanctions alike?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Amanda A Licht, 2022. "Introducing Regular Turnover Details, 1960–2015: A dataset on world leaders’ legal removal from office," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-285, March.
    4. Ashrakat Elshehawy & Nikolay Marinov & Federico Nanni & Jordan Tama, 2023. "SASCAT: Natural language processing approach to the study of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(5), pages 877-885, September.
    5. Omer Zarpli & Dursun Peksen, 2025. "Election proximity and the effectiveness of economic sanctions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(3), pages 707-721, May.
    6. Yuleng Zeng & Andreas Dür, 2025. "Shock and awe: Economic sanctions and relative military spending," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(6), pages 1968-1983, November.

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