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Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations

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  • Butler, Daniel M.
  • Butler, Matthew J.

Abstract

We provide an introduction to the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and use the technique to evaluate models of sequential Senate elections predicting that the winning party for one Senate seat will receive fewer votes in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946 to 2004, we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent.

Suggested Citation

  • Butler, Daniel M. & Butler, Matthew J., 2006. "Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 439-455, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:14:y:2006:i:04:p:439-455_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Chad Kendall & Marie Rekkas, 2012. "Incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1560-1585, November.
    2. Holbein, John B. & Ladd, Helen F., 2017. "Accountability pressure: Regression discontinuity estimates of how No Child Left Behind influenced student behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 55-67.
    3. Daniel Höhmann, 2017. "The effect of legislature size on public spending: evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 345-367, December.

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