Containment Measures and Business Confidence in COVID Times: A Global Study

In this article, we take a global perspective to assess the impact of the exogenous COVID pandemic shock on business confidence. Through a quantitative analysis of 31 advanced and 12 emerging economies over the period from January 2018 to December 2020, we provide a novel investigation of a unique worldwide event, in contrast to the most frequent exogenous shocks, which typically have a more limited local or regional scope. We proxy business expectations with the business confidence indicator or BCI. First, we find that the containment measures for the COVID pandemic have negatively affected business confidence, with the compulsory policies having a greater negative effect on BCI than the voluntary ones. Second, we find positive spillover effects on the local BCIs from the containment measures implemented in neighboring countries. This suggests that business people are not against compulsory measures per se, but rather that they are less inclined to assume the costs of these. Third, we find that while the severity of containment measures has been greater in emerging countries, the negative impact on BCI of these containment measures has been larger in advanced economies. 本文采用全球视角来评估新冠疫情带来的外源性休克给企业家经商信心带来的影响。通过对31个发达经济体和12个发展中经济体从2018年1月至2020年12月数据的量化分析，我们对该全球性事件进行了调研。使用企业家的 “商业期待” 来代表其经商信心，我们发现了几个重要结果。首先，新冠防疫措施挫伤了经商信心，措施越严厉，负面效应越大。其次，邻国由于疫情措施对经商信心的挫伤会产生溢出效应，而影响本地企业家的经商信心。第三，虽然发展中经济体的防疫措施更加严厉，但其负面影响却在发达经济体中更大。