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The Incidence Of Informational Cascades And The Behavior Of Trade Interarrival Times During The Stock Market Bubble

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  • Patterson, Douglas M.
  • Sharma, Vivek

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible formation of informational cascades by traders in a random sample of 8,000 NYSE stock-days experiencing extreme price changes during 1998–2001. Our cascade measure is designed to detect informational cascades in high-frequency stock market prices. First, we find evidence of cascades on approximately 12% of the days when the NYSE experiences, on average, large price increases. This percentage increases to about 20% on days experiencing large price decreases, on average. Second, we find evidence that the interarrival times of trades in those stocks exhibiting significant informational cascades are generated by a nonlinear stochastic process. Third, the evidence supporting cascades is largely confined to smaller stocks and to stocks followed by fewer security analysts. Last, the occurrence of cascades appears to correlate with the incorporation of fundamental information into security prices.

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  • Patterson, Douglas M. & Sharma, Vivek, 2010. "The Incidence Of Informational Cascades And The Behavior Of Trade Interarrival Times During The Stock Market Bubble," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S1), pages 111-136, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:14:y:2010:i:s1:p:111-136_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wu, Zhanchi, 2022. "Does herding behavior exist in China's carbon markets?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. Rahman, M. Arifur & Chowdhury, Shah Saeed Hassan & Shibley Sadique, M., 2015. "Herding where retail investors dominate trading: The case of Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 46-60.
    3. Christopher Boortz & Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Institutional Herding in Financial Markets: New Evidence through the Lens of a Simulated Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1336, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Dieter Nautz, "undated". "Herding in financial markets: Bridging the gap between theory and evidence," BDPEMS Working Papers 2013002, Berlin School of Economics.
    5. Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Correlated Trades and Herd Behavior in the Stock Market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Jurkatis, Simon, 2022. "Why you should not use the LSV herding measure," Bank of England working papers 959, Bank of England.
    7. Christopher Boortz & Stephanie Kremer & Simon Jurkatis & Dieter Nautz, 2014. "Information Risk, Market Stress and Institutional Herding in Financial Markets: New Evidence Through the Lens of a Simulated Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    8. Marques Leite, Gabriela & Machado-Santos, Carlos & Ferreira da Silva, Amélia, 2018. "Destabilizing Impacts of Herding Behaviour in Portuguese Capital Market || Impactos desestabilizantes en el comportamiento gregario en el mercado de capitales portugués," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, Junio.

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