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Long-Term Prospects of the International Wine Trade

Author

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  • Bargain, Olivier
  • Cardebat, Jean-Marie
  • Chiappini, Raphael
  • Laffitte, Corentin

Abstract

This article discusses key comparative advantages of wine-producing nations and suggest prospective views on their evolution. Our methodology is twofold. First, we study comparative advantages in 16 countries using Porter's diamond. Then, we report results from a survey in which wine economists are asked to assess the future trade performance of these countries. Results are relatively consistent across methods regarding the future “heavy weights” like China, but also New Zealand and Chile, countries show the greatest potential to succeed in the future global wine trade. It is also expected that Georgia, the United Kingdom, and Australia play an important role, although to a lesser extent. Our findings indicate that comparative advantages in wine trade are neither uniform nor static; especially, terroir is no longer sufficient. The diamond approach contradicts experts from two countries in particular, France and Argentina, suggesting that experts put great emphasis on demand and market structures as key trade determinants for the future. (JEL Classifications: F14, Q17)

Suggested Citation

  • Bargain, Olivier & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Chiappini, Raphael & Laffitte, Corentin, 2018. "Long-Term Prospects of the International Wine Trade," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 442-450, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jwecon:v:13:y:2018:i:04:p:442-450_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Macedo & Sofia Gouveia & João Rebelo, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of Port and Douro wine exports: An econometric approach," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 7, pages 1-8.
    2. Anna Carbone, 2021. "From Flasks to Fine Glasses: Recent Trends in Wine Economics," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(2), pages 187-198, July.
    3. Macedo, Anthony & Rebelo, João & Gouveia, Sofia, 2019. "Export propensity and intensity in the wine industry: a fractional econometric approach," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 8(3), December.
    4. Wakuo Saito & Makoto Nakakita & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of Japanese Rice Wine Export Trends: Large Firms in the Nada Region vs. SMEs in Other Regions," World, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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