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We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years

Author

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  • Guinnane, Timothy W.

Abstract

Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.” Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable. “… we haven’t just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often.” —McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11)

Suggested Citation

  • Guinnane, Timothy W., 2023. "We Do Not Know the Population of Every Country in the World for the Past Two Thousand Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 912-938, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:83:y:2023:i:3:p:912-938_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2022. "Correction to: Persistence studies: a new kind of economic history?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 42(3), pages 309-309, December.
    2. Miotto, Martina & Pascali, Luigi, 2025. "Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of clocks, ships and cities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Deseau, Arnaud, 2024. "Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Pablo Álvarez-Aragón & Catherine Guirkinger & Paola Villar, 2025. "School Clustering and Religious Competition:Persistence of Educational Inequality in Colonial and Post-colonial D.R. Congo," DeFiPP Working Papers 2502, University of Namur, Development Finance and Public Policies.
    5. Peter M. Solar, 2021. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: Further Concerns about the Historical GDP Estimates for China," Working Papers 0217, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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