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Do We Really Know the WTO Cures Cancer?

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  • Chaudoin, Stephen
  • Hays, Jude
  • Hicks, Raymond

Abstract

This article uses a replication experiment of ninety-four specifications from sixteen different studies to show the severity of the problem of selection on unobservables. Using a variety of approaches, it shows that membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization has a significant effect on a surprisingly high number of dependent variables (34 per cent) that have little or no theoretical relationship to the WTO. To make the exercise even more conservative, the study demonstrates that membership in a low-impact environmental treaty, the Convention on Trade in Endangered Species, yields similarly high false positive rates. The authors advocate theoretically informed sensitivity analysis, showing how prior theoretical knowledge conditions the crucial choice of covariates for sensitivity tests. While the current study focuses on international institutions, the arguments also apply to other subfields and applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaudoin, Stephen & Hays, Jude & Hicks, Raymond, 2018. "Do We Really Know the WTO Cures Cancer?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 903-928, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:48:y:2018:i:04:p:903-928_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Grigoriadis, Theocharis N. & Moschos, Dimitrios, 2023. "Farewell Anatolia: Refugees & the rise of the Greek Left," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. J Tyson Chatagnier & Haeyong Lim, 2021. "Does the WTO exacerbate international conflict?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 1068-1082, September.
    3. Ryan Brutger & Stephen Chaudoin & Max Kagan, 2023. "Trade Wars and Election Interference," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.

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