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Systemic Risk: An Asymptotic Evaluation

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  • Asimit, Alexandru V.
  • Li, Jinzhu

Abstract

Systemic risk (SR) has been shown to play an important role in explaining the financial turmoils in the last several decades and understanding this source of risk has been a particular interest amongst academics, practitioners and regulators. The precise mathematical formulation of SR is still scrutinised, but the main purpose is to evaluate the financial distress of a system as a result of the failure of one component of the financial system in question. Many of the mathematical definitions of SR are based on evaluating expectations in extreme regions and therefore, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) represents the key ingredient in producing valuable estimates of SR and even its decomposition per individual components of the entire system. Without doubt, the prescribed dependence model amongst the system components has a major impact over our asymptotic approximations. Thus, this paper considers various well-known dependence models in the EVT literature that allow us to generate SR estimates. Our findings reveal that SR has a significant impact under asymptotic dependence, while weak tail dependence, known as asymptotic independence, produces an insignificant loss over the regulatory capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Asimit, Alexandru V. & Li, Jinzhu, 2018. "Systemic Risk: An Asymptotic Evaluation," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 673-698, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:48:y:2018:i:02:p:673-698_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jinzhu, 2022. "Asymptotic results on marginal expected shortfalls for dependent risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 146-168.
    2. Li, Jinzhu, 2022. "Asymptotic analysis of a dynamic systemic risk measure in a renewal risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 38-56.
    3. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2019. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Papers 1909.11794, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    4. Chen, Yiqing & White, Toby & Yuen, Kam Chuen, 2021. "Precise large deviations of aggregate claims with arbitrary dependence between claim sizes and waiting times," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Yuan, Meng & Lu, Dawei, 2022. "Precise large deviation for sums of sub-exponential claims with the m-dependent semi-Markov type structure," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Ji, Liuyan & Tan, Ken Seng & Yang, Fan, 2021. "Tail dependence and heavy tailedness in extreme risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 282-293.
    7. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2020. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, January.

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