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A Correlation Sensitivity Analysis Of Non-Life Underwriting Risk In Solvency Capital Requirement Estimation

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  • Bermúdez, Lluís
  • Ferri, Antoni
  • Guillén, Montserrat

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the solvency capital requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the standard model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an internal model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR, we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bermúdez, Lluís & Ferri, Antoni & Guillén, Montserrat, 2013. "A Correlation Sensitivity Analysis Of Non-Life Underwriting Risk In Solvency Capital Requirement Estimation," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 21-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:astinb:v:43:y:2013:i:01:p:21-37_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jelena Kočović & Marija Koprivica, 2018. "Internal Model For Measuring Premium Risk In Determining Solvency Of Non-Life Insurers," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(217), pages 99-128, April – J.
    2. Ioannis Badounas & Georgios Pitselis, 2020. "Loss Reserving Estimation With Correlated Run-Off Triangles in a Quantile Longitudinal Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, February.
    3. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2020. "Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 183-198.
    4. Georgios Deligiannakis & Alexandros Zimbidis & Ioannis Papanikolaou, 2023. "Earthquake loss and Solvency Capital Requirement calculation using a fault-specific catastrophe model," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(4), pages 821-846, October.
    5. Bølviken, Erik & Guillen, Montserrat, 2017. "Risk aggregation in Solvency II through recursive log-normals," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 20-26.
    6. Catalina Bolancé & Montserrat Guillén & Alemar Padilla, 2015. "Estimación del riesgo mediante el ajuste de cópulas," Working Papers 2015-01, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    7. Lluís Bermúdez & Antoni Ferri & Montserrat Guillén, 2014. "On the use of risk measures in solvency capital estimation," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 4-13.

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