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Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Edoardo FRATTOLA

    (ank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division (Florence Branch))

  • Marco TONELLO

    (Bank of Italy, Regional Economic Research Division (Venice Branch))

Abstract

In this paper, we leverage newly available rich administrative data to study the heterogeneous evolution of fertility and newborn health during the pandemic. We focus on Tuscany, a representative region of Italy, which was one of the first countries to experience the severe impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. Our findings indicate a decline in the number of births relative to the pre-pandemic trend in late 2020 and early 2021, roughly nine to twelve months after the pandemic onset. However, starting in March 2021, birth numbers consistently exceeded the pre-pandemic trend, resulting in a cumulative “baby bump” compared to the counterfactual scenario. This aggregate increase conceals significant heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups, with positive deviations entirely driven by native, educated, and employed parents. During the same period, newborn health indicators showed no signs of deterioration and, if anything, slightly improved.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo FRATTOLA & Marco TONELLO, 2026. "Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 114-140, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:92:y:2026:i:1:p:114-140
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2025.10010
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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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