IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000165/008086.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Gómez Cardona, Sebastián

    ()

  • Jaramillo, Alberto

    ()

Abstract

Resumen: Con la formulación de la teoría de las expectativas racionales, el análisis de las predicciones de los agentes económicos ha cobrado un papel muy importante en el desarrollo de la mayoría de teorías económicas. En este trabajo se estiman algunos tests de No Causalidad" de Granger, Sims y Toda, y de Yamamoto, para determinar si las expectativas empresariales causan la coyuntura industrial en Colombia. Para ello, se utilizan datos de encuestas de opinión procedentes de gremios privados y del DANE. Los resultados son concluyentes: las expectativas parecen incidir en el comportamiento futuro de variables como ventas, producción y empleo industrial. De manera recurrente, los resultados sugieren que, en la formación de expectativas, toman parte esas mismas variables, las expectativas anteriores y el comportamiento de la demanda, variable exógena a la empresa, medida en los niveles de pedidos y de inventarios."

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez Cardona, Sebastián & Jaramillo, Alberto, 2009. "¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:008086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/5268/4629
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gallardo, Mauricio & Pedersen, Michael, 2008. "Encuestas de opinión empresarial del sector industrial en América Latina," Estudios Estadísticos 64, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Bivariate causality analysis between FDI inflows and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2006.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comportamiento de la firma; expectativas empresariales; coyuntura económica; ventas; empleo;

    JEL classification:

    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • M16 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - International Business Administration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000165:008086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Universidad de Antioquia. Facultad de Ciencias Economicas. (Laura Maria Posada Arboleda)). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.