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¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Gómez Cardona
  • Alberto Jaramillo

Abstract

Resumen: Con la formulación de la teoría de las expectativas racionales, el análisis de las predicciones de los agentes económicos ha cobrado un papel muy importante en el desarrollo de la mayoría de teorías económicas. En este trabajo se estiman algunos tests de No Causalidad" de Granger, Sims y Toda, y de Yamamoto, para determinar si las expectativas empresariales causan la coyuntura industrial en Colombia. Para ello, se utilizan datos de encuestas de opinión procedentes de gremios privados y del DANE. Los resultados son concluyentes: las expectativas parecen incidir en el comportamiento futuro de variables como ventas, producción y empleo industrial. De manera recurrente, los resultados sugieren que, en la formación de expectativas, toman parte esas mismas variables, las expectativas anteriores y el comportamiento de la demanda, variable exógena a la empresa, medida en los niveles de pedidos y de inventarios."

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Gómez Cardona & Alberto Jaramillo, 2009. "¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:008086
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    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/5268/4629
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    JEL classification:

    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • M16 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - International Business Administration

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