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Deuda externa pública e inversión en Colombia 1994-2007: evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR


  • Andrés Eduardo Salamanca Lugo


  • Viviana del Pilar Monroy Mejía



Este documento examina la relación existente entre la deuda externa del gobierno nacional y la inversión privada en Colombia entre 1994 y 2007, a partir del modelo de series de tiempo no lineales TAR. La estimación se realizó a través de los métodos MCMC y el enfoque bayesiano. Los resultados muestran evidencia de una relación no lineal entre las variables de estudio, explicada por el modelo TAR. Además, el análisis indica la existencia de una relación inversa entre el crecimiento de la inversión privada y el crecimiento de la deuda externa del gobierno nacional.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Eduardo Salamanca Lugo & Viviana del Pilar Monroy Mejía, 2009. "Deuda externa pública e inversión en Colombia 1994-2007: evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:006312

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    Cited by:

    1. Isaac Sánchez-Juárez & Rosa García-Almada, 2016. "Public Debt, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Mexico," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, March.
    2. repec:gam:jijfss:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:6:d:66901 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    hipótesis de sobreendeudamiento; deuda externa pública; inversión; TAR; enfoque bayesiano; MCMC.;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy


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