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La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Alexander Harmath Fernández
  • José U. Mora Mora
  • Rafael Alexis Acevedo Rueda

Abstract

Este artículo estima la brecha del PIB para Venezuela por medio de un modelo de vectores autorregresivo estructural y el método de descomposición de Blanchard y Quah para el período 1999:1-2010:4. Se usó información trimestral para la tasa de inflación, el producto interno bruto real, la tasa de desocupación y los precios de realización del barril de petróleo; se identificaron shocks fiscales y monetarios por el lado de la demanda, y tecnológicos y laborales por el lado de la oferta. Los resultados empíricos revelan que aunque inicialmente existe una amplia brecha entre el producto real y el potencial, esta tiende a cerrarse progresivamente hacia finales del período como consecuencia del aumento de los precios del petróleo. Las proyecciones revelan que la brecha pudiera eventualmente caer como resultado de la contracción económica observada durante los anos 2009 y 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Alexander Harmath Fernández & José U. Mora Mora & Rafael Alexis Acevedo Rueda, 2013. "La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:010965
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    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/revistadys/Articulo71_2.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclos económicos; producto potencial; inflación; precios del petróleo; modelos SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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