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Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes

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  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Riccardo Magnani

Abstract

Cette etude presente une analyse quantitative de l’impact du vieillissement demographique et des reformes des regimes de retraite pour les trois principaux pays europeens : la France, l’Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni. Dans ce but, nous utilisons un modele d’equilibre general calculable a generations imbriquees d’individus heterogenes (Olgamap). Les simulations d’un scenario “au fil de l’eau”, caracterise notamment par un recours a l’emprunt public pour financer les deficits des regimes de retraite par repartition, indiquent que les effets macro-economiques du vieillissement, et en particulier la viabilite des regimes de retraite, seront fortement dependants des hypotheses effectuees en matiere d’ouverture financiere des economies considerees. Afin de souligner les vertus prospectives de cet instrument, une serie de variantes sur les reformes en cours, sur les differents modes de gestion de l’equilibre financier des regimes ainsi que sur les hypotheses effectuees en matiere de demographie est proposee.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2008. "Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 65-93.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-1tc
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev113/ei113c.htm
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2012. "Réforme des retraites en France : évaluation de la mise en place d'un système par comptes notionnels," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 69-90.
    2. Daniel Nicolae Militaru, 2011. "The Impact Of The Economic And Financial Crisis On Pension Systems In The European Union," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 20-23, November.
    3. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2016. "Vieillissement démographique et réforme paramétrique des retraites. Les enseignements d’un modèle EGC-GI pour le Maroc
      [Ageing and pension reform. A computational olg model for Morocco]
      ," MPRA Paper 74077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Daniel Nicolae Militaru, 2011. "The Costs of Demographic and Economic Crises - Challenges to Pension Systems Reform," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 11(4), pages 175-182.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retraites; vieillissement; modeles OLG;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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