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Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes

  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Riccardo Magnani

Cette etude presente une analyse quantitative de l’impact du vieillissement demographique et des reformes des regimes de retraite pour les trois principaux pays europeens : la France, l’Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni. Dans ce but, nous utilisons un modele d’equilibre general calculable a generations imbriquees d’individus heterogenes (Olgamap). Les simulations d’un scenario “au fil de l’eau”, caracterise notamment par un recours a l’emprunt public pour financer les deficits des regimes de retraite par repartition, indiquent que les effets macro-economiques du vieillissement, et en particulier la viabilite des regimes de retraite, seront fortement dependants des hypotheses effectuees en matiere d’ouverture financiere des economies considerees. Afin de souligner les vertus prospectives de cet instrument, une serie de variantes sur les reformes en cours, sur les differents modes de gestion de l’equilibre financier des regimes ainsi que sur les hypotheses effectuees en matiere de demographie est proposee.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev113/ei113c.htm
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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 113 ()
Pages: 65-93

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-1tc
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