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Réforme des retraites en France : évaluation de la mise en place d'un système par comptes notionnels


  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Riccardo Magnani


We simulate the consequences of the transition of the French pension system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) system between 2015 and 2030 using a stylised overlapping-generations general equilibrium model incorporating macroeconomic feedback effects. Introducing an NDC system would reduce financing requirements by around 0.8 points of GDP by 2030. In terms of financing requirements, an NDC system would outperform the existing pay-as-you-go system in case of an increase in life expectancy or a decrease in productivity growth. The two systems are equivalent in the event of a decline in fertility or a rise in the unemployment rate. In an NDC system, however, an increase in the contribution rate has a negative impact on financing requirements because pensions automatically rise in line with contributions.
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  • Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2010. "Réforme des retraites en France : évaluation de la mise en place d'un système par comptes notionnels," Working Papers 2010-21, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-21

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arrondel, Luc & Laferrere, Anne, 2001. "Taxation and wealth transmission in France," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 3-33, January.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2008. "Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 65-93.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 16-27, February.
    5. Antoine Bommier & Thierry Magnac & Muriel Roger, 2001. "Départs en retraite : évolutions récentes et modèles économiques," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(1), pages 79-124.
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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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