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Réforme des retraites en France : évaluation de la mise en place d'un système par comptes notionnels

  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Riccardo Magnani

We simulate the consequences of the transition of the French pension system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) system between 2015 and 2030 using a stylised overlapping-generations general equilibrium model incorporating macroeconomic feedback effects. Introducing an NDC system would reduce financing requirements by around 0.8 points of GDP by 2030. In terms of financing requirements, an NDC system would outperform the existing pay-as-you-go system in case of an increase in life expectancy or a decrease in productivity growth. The two systems are equivalent in the event of a decline in fertility or a rise in the unemployment rate. In an NDC system, however, an increase in the contribution rate has a negative impact on financing requirements because pensions automatically rise in line with contributions.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2010-21.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-21
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  1. Arrondel, Luc & Laferrere, Anne, 2001. "Taxation and wealth transmission in France," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 3-33, January.
  2. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald D, 2007. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt37k785qq, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  3. Xavier Chojnicki & Riccardo Magnani, 2008. "Vieillissement, retraites et ouverture financiere en Europe : des reformes encore insuffisantes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 65-93.
  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 14682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Antoine Bommier & Thierry Magnac & Muriel Roger, 2001. "Départs en retraite : évolutions récentes et modèles économiques," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(1), pages 79-124.
  6. repec:cpm:opuscl:14 is not listed on IDEAS
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