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Les regimes monetaires en Australie, 1977-2000 : une mise en perspective a l’aide d’un indicateur de distorsion du taux de change reel

  • Jean-François Hoarau

L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser le comportement, à long terme, du taux de change reel effectif australien de 1977 au 2eme trimestre 2000. Dans un premier temps, un taux de change reel d’equilibre pour le dollar australien est estime a partir d’un ensemble de fondamentaux reels par le biais des methodes de cointegration (le maximum de vraisemblance et les moindres carres dynamiques). Dans un second temps, un indicateur de distorsions du dollar australien est deduit de ces estimations. Il apparait alors que, contrairement au discours communement tenu dans les cercles politiques australiens, le systeme de change flexible, instaure en decembre 1983, n’a pas ete capable de contenir les tensions sur le taux de change. En effet, il a fallu la mise en place du policy mix alliant la flexibilite impure des changes et le ciblage d’inflation a la fin de 1992 pour garantir l’equilibre.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 105 ()
Pages: 85-112

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-1td
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