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Les regimes monetaires en Australie, 1977-2000 : une mise en perspective a l’aide d’un indicateur de distorsion du taux de change reel

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  • Jean-François Hoarau

Abstract

L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser le comportement, à long terme, du taux de change reel effectif australien de 1977 au 2eme trimestre 2000. Dans un premier temps, un taux de change reel d’equilibre pour le dollar australien est estime a partir d’un ensemble de fondamentaux reels par le biais des methodes de cointegration (le maximum de vraisemblance et les moindres carres dynamiques). Dans un second temps, un indicateur de distorsions du dollar australien est deduit de ces estimations. Il apparait alors que, contrairement au discours communement tenu dans les cercles politiques australiens, le systeme de change flexible, instaure en decembre 1983, n’a pas ete capable de contenir les tensions sur le taux de change. En effet, il a fallu la mise en place du policy mix alliant la flexibilite impure des changes et le ciblage d’inflation a la fin de 1992 pour garantir l’equilibre.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Les regimes monetaires en Australie, 1977-2000 : une mise en perspective a l’aide d’un indicateur de distorsion du taux de change reel," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 105, pages 85-112.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-1td
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    File URL: http://www.economieinternationale.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev105/rev105d.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabien CANDAU & Serge REY & Jean-François HOARAU & Michaël GOUJON, 2013. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU’s ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," Working Papers 2013-2014_6, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Oct 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taux de change reel d’equilibre; mesalignement reel; cointegration; marches des changes; policy mix; regime de change;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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