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Langfristige Baunachfrage in Deutschland - Belebung im Wohnungsbau bei sinkenden öffentlichen Bauausgaben

Listed author(s):
  • Ludwig Dorffmeister


  • Lena Rehnen

Nach der Prognose des ifo Instituts wird das Bauvolumen bis zum Ende des Prognosezeitraums im Jahr 2019 um durchschnittlich rund ½% jährlich wachsen. Während der Wohnungsbau langfristig von zunehmenden Neubauaktivitäten profitiert, wird die Investitionsneigung von Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden aufgrund der schwierigen Haushaltsituation dagegen sinken. Im Wohnungsbau sollten die Bauleistungen in den nächsten zehn Jahren im Durchschnitt um rund 1% p.a. zulegen, die öffentlichen Baumaßnahmen dürften sich jedoch um nahezu ½% pro Jahr verringern. Im gewerblichen Bau sollte mit der Erholung der Weltwirtschaft zumindest mittelfristig eine Belebung einsetzen. Bis 2019 dürften daher die durchschnittlichen jährlichen Zuwachsraten des gewerblichen Bauvolumens im positiven Bereich liegen.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 07 (April)
Pages: 27-36

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:07:p:27-36
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