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Altenpflege und Soziale Dienste – wachsender Bedarf bei fehlenden Mitteln

  • Herbert Hofmann


Aufgrund der demographischen Alterung wird die Zahl der Pflegebedürftigen in den nächsten Jahrzehnten deutlich ansteigen. Damit wird auch die gegenwärtig vorhandene Infrastruktur für die ambulante und stationäre Versorgung nicht ausreichen, um den notwendigen Pflegestandard zu erhalten oder sogar zu verbessern. Pflegedienste, Pflegeheime und entsprechend auch Pflegepersonal werden fehlen: Eine Vorausberechnung des Personalbedarfs in Vollzeitäquivalenten auf Basis der bekannten Personal/Pflegefall-Quoten ergibt, dass bis zum Jahr 2010 im Pflegesektor insgesamt knapp 150 000 Vollzeitarbeitskräfte (Vollzeitäquivalente) gebraucht werden. Bis 2020 könnten es rund 250 000 sein. Somit werden die Ausgaben der Pflegeversicherung weiter steigen. Da – nach den gegenwärtigen Regeln – nicht für ein Ausgleich auf der Einnahmenseite gesorgt wird, ist eine grundlegende Reform der Pflegeversicherung dringend notwendig.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 59 (2006)
Issue (Month): 15 (08)
Pages: 24-30

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:59:y:2006:i:15:p:24-30
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