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Weltkonjunktur: Erste Zeichen einer Erholung

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  • Gernot Nerb

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Abstract

Nach dem Rückgang auf einen historischen Tiefstand hat sich das Weltwirtschaftsklima im Januar 2002 wieder erholt, und sein Wert entspricht nunmehr exakt dem Niveau der letzten Erhebung vor den Terroranschlägen in den USA. Trotz des jüngsten Anstiegs liegt der Indikator aber immer noch deutlich unter seinem langjährigen Durchschnitt (1981-2001) in Höhe von 93,8. Die Verbesserung des Indikators resultiert ausschließlich aus den zuversichtlicheren Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate, die Urteile zur aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Situation stagnieren jedoch im Durchschnitt der in die Erhebung einbezogenen 80 Länder auf dem niedrigen Stand vom Oktober letzten Jahres. An der Rangfolge der Wirtschaftsprobleme hat sich seit der letzten Erhebung wenig geändert. Es dominieren nahezu überall Arbeitslosigkeit und Nachfragemangel.

Suggested Citation

  • Gernot Nerb, 2002. "Weltkonjunktur: Erste Zeichen einer Erholung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(05), pages 39-48, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:05:p:39-48
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2002_5_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "2002: Weiterhin moderater gesamtwirtschaftlicher Preisanstieg," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(04), pages 48-50, February.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Vor der Talsohle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(24), pages 27-42, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weltkonjunktur; Entwicklung; Wirtschaftsindikator; Weltwirtschaft; Welt;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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