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Slight weakening in the world economic climate Results of the 69th Ifo Economic Survey International (ESI) of July/August 2000

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  • Gernot Nerb

Abstract

More than 750 experts from 82 countries participated in the 69th ESI survey. In April the ESI index matched the peak reached in January 2000, but the latest survey showed some weakening. The decline is solely due to a somewhat less optimistic assessment of the six-month outlook. Assessments of the current situation have again improved. This constellation points to a stabilisation of economic growth, with a slightly lower pace in the second half of the year. It seems premature to interpret the recent decline in the indicator as a first signal for a looming, international economic downturn. The outlook is still good for a positive scenario for the world economy in the next one to two years: this includes a soft landing for the U.S. economy, strong economic growth in Europe and in the emerging Asian economies, and an economic recovery in Japan. Whether this positive scenario is indeed the most likely only the next ESI surveys can show. For 2000, the experts see a 3.9% growth in GDP, on average, for all countries surveyed. For Western Europe a 3.3% growth rate is expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Gernot Nerb, 2000. "Slight weakening in the world economic climate Results of the 69th Ifo Economic Survey International (ESI) of July/August 2000," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(25), pages 18-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:25:p:18-25
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    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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