Conservative Entrepreneurs: An Attempt to Quantify the 1878–1900 Internal Migration Drivers in Bulgaria

The following research is the first attempt in the Bulgarian-language literature to quantify the drivers behind the internal migration of the population in Bulgaria after 1878, which according to some authors (Palairet, 1997) is of key importance for the established post-liberation economic and social model. So far, hypotheses concerning migration drivers that are found in literature have not been put to formal testing. To test them statistically we collect all the relevant data from official statistical sources. Then we apply a regression analysis (both OLS- and GLS-based) to estimate the parameters of three models explaining migration at three levels: national, rural, and in a specific district (that of Pazardjik). We found no statistical support with respect to political and demographic determinants put forward in the literature, such as the “agrarian coup” that followed the mass-outflow of Turkish population around the Russo-Turkish War, or “revenge” for the 1876 Bulgarian atrocities. Instead, the empirical evidence support the social and economic drivers of migration. It was the smaller economic opportunities in the mountain regions that pushed nearly 20 percent of Bulgarians towards fertile planes. Apparently, their main incentive was the availability of “free” arable land, regardless of its location, fertility, or infrastructural connectivity. Hence, the settlers of the last quarter of the 19th century can be portrayed as conservative entrepreneurs, embarking on unstudied and distant lands, where they seek not economic prosperity, but physical survival.