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Un nouvel indice de risque immobilier pour le marché résidentiel parisien


  • Michel Baroni
  • Fabrice Barthélémy
  • Mahdi Mokrane


This article focuses on the driving factors associated with the Paris apartment market. The research explores a database of around 276 000 transactions for residential properties in the Paris area over the 1982-2005 period. A factorial model may capture the systematic link between residential prices and a set of predefined economic or financial variables. The measure of this link underlines the “true path” of the real estate market in the sense that systematic factors can represent it. This methodology identifies the main driving factors for the Paris residential market. As systematic factors they are able to represent the fundamental market evolution and in comparison to existing price growth indices, allow the detection of a speculative behaviour during crisis periods. The “factor model” may also provide valuable intuition for forecasting residential prices. Classification JEL : C20, G00

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Baroni & Fabrice Barthélémy & Mahdi Mokrane, 2008. "Un nouvel indice de risque immobilier pour le marché résidentiel parisien," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(1), pages 99-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_591_0099

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
    2. Dora Costa & Richard H. Steckel, 1997. "Long-Term Trends in Health, Welfare, and Economic Growth in the United States," NBER Chapters,in: Health and Welfare during Industrialization, pages 47-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marc Fleurbaey & Guillaume Gaulier, 2009. "International Comparisons of Living Standards by Equivalent Incomes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 597-624, September.
    4. Marc Fleurbaey & Marie‐Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "Fair Retirement Under Risky Lifetime," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 177-210, February.
    5. Fleurbaey, Marc & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2013. "Prevention against equality?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-84.
    6. Fleurbaey, Marc, 2012. "Fairness, Responsibility, and Welfare," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653591, June.
    7. Sen, Amartya, 1998. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Fleurbaey, Marc & Leroux, Marie-Louise & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2014. "Compensating the dead," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 28-41.
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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General


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