Un nouvel indice de risque immobilier pour le marché résidentiel parisien
This article focuses on the driving factors associated with the Paris apartment market. The research explores a database of around 276 000 transactions for residential properties in the Paris area over the 1982-2005 period. A factorial model may capture the systematic link between residential prices and a set of predefined economic or financial variables. The measure of this link underlines the “true path” of the real estate market in the sense that systematic factors can represent it. This methodology identifies the main driving factors for the Paris residential market. As systematic factors they are able to represent the fundamental market evolution and in comparison to existing price growth indices, allow the detection of a speculative behaviour during crisis periods. The “factor model” may also provide valuable intuition for forecasting residential prices. Classification JEL : C20, G00
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