How accurate are the Swedish forecasters on GDB-Growth, CPI-inflation and unemployment? (1993 - 2001)
This study evaluates the performance of the eight most important Swedish domestic forecasters of real GDP-growth, CPI-inflation and unemployment for the sample period 1993-2001. The evaluation is based on the following measures: mean absolute error, the root mean square error, bias and finally directional accuracy. The forecasts are even compared to naive random walk and random walk with drift models. The results indicate that the current forecasts compared to the year ahead forecasts decline over the forecasting horizons as more information becomes available. The results with respect to the directional accuracy indicate that we are equally good/bad in predicting the directional accuracy for all three macro aggregates. According to the comparisons with the naive random walk model six out of seven Swedish CPI-inflation forecasters were outperformed by the naive random walk model. Tests of bias indicate that the Swedish forecasters underestimate GDP-growth and overestimate CPI-inflation and the unemployment rate for the sample period. All the Swedish forecasters have been successful in predicting the downward trend in CPI-inflation and the unemployment rate. The performance of the Swedish domestic forecasters is better using preliminary GDP-growth outcomes than final. The performance for the current year forecasts is better than the year ahead forecasts for all three macro economic variables. Revisions are positively biased.
Volume (Year): 47 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997.
"Evaluating Density Forecasts,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, "undated". "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating density forecasts," Working Papers 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
- N/A, 1969. "How Well Does the National Institute Forecast ?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 40-52, November.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1996. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1998.
"Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
98-15, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2004:v:47:i:2:p:249-278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.