Totals Markets as Evidence Against Widespread Point Shaving
Wolfers (2006) suggests that NCAA basketball is marred by widespread gambling corruption. We examine totals wagers in a variety of sports betting markets to determine whether observed outcomes are symmetric around closing lines, an important assumption Wolfers makes in his analysis. Our results show that totals wagers result in just under outcomes more frequently than they result in just over outcomes. This occurs because gamblers strongly prefer to take the over in totals betting, and profit-seeking bookmakers capitalize by shading totals lines upwards. Likewise, prior work shows that gamblers in point spread markets strongly prefer to bet on favorites, so it is not surprising that win/no cover outcomes occur more frequently that do win/cover outcomes. We conclude that the critical but erroneous symmetric-distribution assumption is responsible for creating the illusion of widespread point shaving.
Volume (Year): 4 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ |
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.predictionmarketjournal.com/index_files/Page418.htm Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:4:y:2010:i:2:p:15-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.