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"Contagion" between the emerging and developed capital markets: empirical evidence and reflections on the international portfolio diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Else Monteiro Nogueira

    (Banco Santander)

  • Wagner Moura Lamounier

    (Cepead e Cepcon, UFMG)

Abstract

In this research, we analyzed the short and long term interdependence and relationship between the stock indices of the major emerging capital markets and the major developed markets for the period 1995-2005. The aim was to verify the existence and the dynamics of the “contagion” between the markets, or if the occurrence of crises and changes in the behavior of a market would have impacts on the behavior of the others. In the development of the work, we applied the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). We found the presence of cointegrating relationships between the markets analyzed, but was able to see that, despite being cointegrated markets, investors could bene t from international diversification of portfolios. That’s because the speed of adjustment of the long-term ratio of cointegration between the markets was low for the period analyzed. Accordingly, investors would have the opportunity to reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios. Keywords: Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Else Monteiro Nogueira & Wagner Moura Lamounier, 2008. ""Contagion" between the emerging and developed capital markets: empirical evidence and reflections on the international portfolio diversification," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 6(2), pages 267-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:brf:journl:v:6:y:2008:i:2:p:267-286
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; VEC; emerging markets; developed markets; international diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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