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Constructing Non-linear Gaussian Time Series by Means of a Simplified State Space Representation

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  • Vidoni Paolo

    (University of Udine)

Abstract

State space models provide a useful stochastic description for dynamic phenomena, based on unobserved or latent variables. When the model rests on linear and Gaussian assumptions there exists a well-known iterative procedure, called the Kalman filter, which gives analytic updating recursion for the filtering, the prediction and the smoothing distributions. However, this is rare and a state space model does not usually admit such a filter. For this reason, instead of looking for analytic solutions, a number of papers aim to define alternative procedures, giving numerical or approximate solutions. This paper concerns a particular class of models based on the assumption that the mixed process, obtained by alternating states and observations, is a Markov process. The main features of this class of models, proposed for stochastic volatility description by Barndorff-Nielsen (1997), are emphasized. In this framework, some new non-linear Gaussian state space models, computationally tractable and of potential interest for applications, may be defined.

Suggested Citation

  • Vidoni Paolo, 2004. "Constructing Non-linear Gaussian Time Series by Means of a Simplified State Space Representation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:8:y:2004:i:2:n:9
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Local scale models : State space alternative to integrated GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 181-202.
    2. Morten B. Jensen & Asger Lunde, 2001. "The NIG-S&ARCH model: a fat-tailed, stochastic, and autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic volatility model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-10.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    4. Paolo Vidoni, 2001. "Proper Dispersion State Space Models for Stochastic Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 271-281, June.
    5. P. Vidoni, 1999. "Exponential family state space models based on a conjugate latent process," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(1), pages 213-221.
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