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Fictional Expectations and the Global Media in the Greek Debt Crisis: A Topic Modeling Approach

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  • Daniel Volker
  • Neubert Magnus

    (Lehrstuhl für Monetäre Makroökonomik, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Universitätsring 3, D-06108Halle(Saale), Germany)

  • Orban Agnes

    (Universität Köln, Cologne Center for Comparative Politics, Postfach 411020, D-50870Köln, Germany)

Abstract

We study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors’ expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled dataset of over 430,000 articles from The International New York Times and Financial Times from 2009 to 2015. We identify a Greek debt crisis topic and relate it to events concerning Greece during this time period. Our finding is that events are only relevant for financial markets when they are covered in the media, whereas events without media coverage have no effect. News coverage without immediate events is equally irrelevant for financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Volker & Neubert Magnus & Orban Agnes, 2018. "Fictional Expectations and the Global Media in the Greek Debt Crisis: A Topic Modeling Approach," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 59(2), pages 525-566, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jbwige:v:59:y:2018:i:2:p:525-566:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/jbwg-2018-0018
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    Cited by:

    1. Wehrheim, Lino, 2021. "The sound of silence: On the (in)visibility of economists in the media," Working Papers 30, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Lino Wehrheim, 2019. "Economic history goes digital: topic modeling the Journal of Economic History," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(1), pages 83-125, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek Debt Crisis; machine learning; expectations; economic sociology; financial crises; media; topic models; big data; Griechische Schuldenkrise; Maschinelles Lernen; Erwartungen; Wirtschaftssoziologie; Finanzkrisen; Medien; Topic Modelle; Big Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D - Microeconomics
    • Z - Other Special Topics
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • G - Financial Economics
    • L - Industrial Organization

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