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Sostenibilidad del endeudamiento público en Bolivia

  • Oscar Lora Rocha

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Raúl Mendoza Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Tatiana Quiroga Morales

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Registered author(s):

    En el trabajo se analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda del sector público boliviano mediante los criterios adoptados en la iniciativa HIPC II y bajo los enfoques de consistencia e intertemporal o del valor presente. Con base en un modelo de consistencia se realizan proyecciones macroeconómicas para el período 2002 - 2015, las mismas que permiten determinar saldos primarios del sector público y sus necesidades de financiamiento en un escenario base y en escenarios alternativos que consideran diferentes shocks. Los resultados del escenario base presentan indicadores de la deuda pública en niveles considerados sostenibles, aunque con tendencias a sobrepasar los valores críticos en el largo plazo. Las simulaciones realizadas permiten cuantificar la vulnerabilidad fiscal frente a disminuciones en las tasas de crecimiento del PIB, incrementos en las tasas de interés para el nuevo financiamiento, y mayores tasas de inflación y depreciación. En contraste, escenarios que permiten estabilizar el superávit primario en torno a 1,5% del PIB reflejan trayectorias sostenibles del endeudamiento público. Estas últimas resultan principalmente de políticas de ingresos y gastos públicos, y de mayores tasas de crecimiento del producto.

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    Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (December)
    Pages: 43-86

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    Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:43-86
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