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Sostenibilidad del endeudamiento público en Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Lora Rocha

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Raúl Mendoza Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Tatiana Quiroga Morales

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En el trabajo se analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda del sector público boliviano mediante los criterios adoptados en la iniciativa HIPC II y bajo los enfoques de consistencia e intertemporal o del valor presente. Con base en un modelo de consistencia se realizan proyecciones macroeconómicas para el período 2002 - 2015, las mismas que permiten determinar saldos primarios del sector público y sus necesidades de financiamiento en un escenario base y en escenarios alternativos que consideran diferentes shocks. Los resultados del escenario base presentan indicadores de la deuda pública en niveles considerados sostenibles, aunque con tendencias a sobrepasar los valores críticos en el largo plazo. Las simulaciones realizadas permiten cuantificar la vulnerabilidad fiscal frente a disminuciones en las tasas de crecimiento del PIB, incrementos en las tasas de interés para el nuevo financiamiento, y mayores tasas de inflación y depreciación. En contraste, escenarios que permiten estabilizar el superávit primario en torno a 1,5% del PIB reflejan trayectorias sostenibles del endeudamiento público. Estas últimas resultan principalmente de políticas de ingresos y gastos públicos, y de mayores tasas de crecimiento del producto.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Lora Rocha & Raúl Mendoza Patiño & Tatiana Quiroga Morales, 2002. "Sostenibilidad del endeudamiento público en Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 5(2), pages 43-86, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:43-86
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deuda pública; sostenibilidad; Bolivia;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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