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Measuring the role of the 1959 revolution on Cuba's economic performance

Author

Listed:
  • Hugo Jales
  • Thomas H. Kang
  • Guilherme Stein
  • Felipe Garcia Ribeiro

Abstract

This paper quantitatively measures the impact of the 1959 Cuban revolution on the country's GDP per capita and exports. We use various policy evaluation methods to obtain a valid counterfactual of Cuba's GDP per capita after the revolution using other Latin American countries as control candidates. We find evidence that regarding both outcomes, the overall impact of the revolution was negative. We also document a negative effect of the economic embargo imposed by the United States and a sizable, positive effect of Cuba's trade agreement with the Soviet Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Jales & Thomas H. Kang & Guilherme Stein & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro, 2018. "Measuring the role of the 1959 revolution on Cuba's economic performance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(8), pages 2243-2274, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:8:p:2243-2274
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12609
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mohammad Ali Kadivar, 2023. "The effect of Islamic revolution and war on income inequality in Iran," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 1007-1026, August.
    2. Firpo Sergio & Possebom Vitor, 2018. "Synthetic Control Method: Inference, Sensitivity Analysis and Confidence Sets," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, September.
    3. Geloso, Vincent J. & Grier, Kevin B., 2022. "Love on the rocks: The causal effects of separatist governments in Quebec," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    5. Daniel D. Bonneau & Joshua C. Hall & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Institutional implant and economic stagnation: a counterfactual study of Somalia," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 483-503, March.
    6. Ferman, Bruno & Pinto, Cristine Campos de Xavier, 2016. "Revisiting the synthetic control estimator," Textos para discussão 421, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    7. Absher, Samuel & Grier, Kevin & Grier, Robin, 2020. "The economic consequences of durable left-populist regimes in Latin America," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 787-817.
    8. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.

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