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The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Lin Zhang
  • Zaichao Du
  • Cheng Hsiao
  • Hua Yin

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="twec12217-abs-0001"> We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short-run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Zhang & Zaichao Du & Cheng Hsiao & Hua Yin, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 878-892, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:38:y:2015:i:5:p:878-892
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.2015.38.issue-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Zaichao & Yin, Hua & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Foreign buyer taxes and house prices in Canada: A tale of two cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Yin, Hua & Du, Zaichao & Zhang, Lin, 2018. "Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 147-158.
    3. Li, Xiao & Qiao, Yuanbo & Shi, Lei, 2019. "Has China's war on pollution slowed the growth of its manufacturing and by how much? Evidence from the Clean Air Action," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 271-289.
    4. Fengyu Cheng & Jianping Liao & Kenichiro Soyano & Feiling Lu, 2023. "The Impact of Automobile Purchase Restriction on Urban Air Quality: Experimental Evidence from Beijing, China," Journal of Economic Statistics, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 109-124, February.

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