IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sysdyn/v38y2022i4p329-353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?

Author

Listed:
  • Hazhir Rahmandad
  • John Sterman

Abstract

Eradication of COVID‐19 is out of reach. Are we close to a “new normal” in which people can leave behind restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID‐19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID‐19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID‐19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazhir Rahmandad & John Sterman, 2022. "Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 38(4), pages 329-353, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:329-353
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1715
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/sdr.1715?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:329-353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0883-7066 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.