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Modelling for Insight: The Case of Dementia in Singapore

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  • James P. Thompson
  • Crystal M. Riley
  • Robert L. Eberlein

Abstract

Many nations have rapidly ageing populations and consequently face important health care policy issues, including a need to address the care and treatment of individuals afflicted with ageing‐related dementia. To help inform policymakers in Singapore concerned with dementia, we constructed a system dynamics model that represents changing population characteristics, incidence and prevalence of dementia, and a population‐level natural history of this pernicious condition. In the model‐building process, we encountered an unexpected simulation outcome that led to valuable insights. This article (i) describes how a difference between measured census data and the simulated population led to improvements in our population modelling, (ii) introduces a novel and generalizable means to simulate how the prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe dementia is likely to change over the next 20 years, and (iii) provides a comparison between two means of prevalence projection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • James P. Thompson & Crystal M. Riley & Robert L. Eberlein, 2014. "Modelling for Insight: The Case of Dementia in Singapore," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 227-235, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:srbeha:v:31:y:2014:i:2:p:227-235
    DOI: 10.1002/sres.2202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mukul G. Asher & Amarendu Nandy, 2008. "Singapore's policy responses to ageing, inequality and poverty: An assessment," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(1), pages 41-60, January.
    2. David Reisman, 2009. "Social Policy in an Ageing Society," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13281.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.
    2. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.

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