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The Impact of Protest on Elections in the United States

Author

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  • Daniel Q. Gillion
  • Sarah A. Soule

Abstract

Objectives The objective of this study was to understand the effect of citizen mobilization on both electoral outcomes and on the likelihood that new candidates will enter races to challenge incumbent politicians. Methods This study uses quantitative, longitudinal data (at the congressional‐district level) on protest, electoral outcomes, and challengers entering races, which are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lagged regression model. Results Results show that protests that express liberal issues lead to a greater percentage of the two‐party vote share for Democratic candidates, while protests that espouse conservative issues offer Republican candidates a greater share of the two‐party vote. Additionally, results indicated that protest shines a light on incumbent politicians’ failure to address constituent concerns, which leads quality candidates to enter subsequent races to challenge incumbent politicians. Conclusions Citizen activism, which has been shown to impact state and firm policy decisions, also impacts electoral outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Q. Gillion & Sarah A. Soule, 2018. "The Impact of Protest on Elections in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1649-1664, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:99:y:2018:i:5:p:1649-1664
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12527
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, D. Mark & Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Karbownik, Krzysztof & Rees, Daniel I. & Steffens, Camila, 2025. "Civil rights protests and election outcomes: Exploring the effects of the poor people’s campaign," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Linda A. Selvey & Morris Carpenter & Mattea Lazarou & Katherine Cullerton, 2022. "Communicating about Energy Policy in a Resource-Rich Jurisdiction during the Climate Crisis: Lessons from the People of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Bremer, Björn & Hutter, Swen & Kriesi, Hanspeter, 2020. "Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 842-866.

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