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Incomplete Information in Monetary Policy Games: Rules Rather Than a Conservative Central Banker


  • Lossani, Marco
  • Natale, Piergiovanna
  • Tirelli, Patrizio


Time inconsistency in monetary policy can be addressed appointing a conservative central banker. But incomplete information about the central banker's preferences impairs the performance of delegation schemes. Firstly, the ensuing ex ante variability of monetary response lowers welfare. Secondly, partial independence schemes may prove inadequate because reputation--not only legal arrangements--defines the actual degree of independence. The incumbent may exploit his reputation to impose too conservative policies, whereas if he lacks reputation, partial independence forces him to accommodate. As a result, simple rules may be preferred. Copyright 1998 by Scottish Economic Society.

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  • Lossani, Marco & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 1998. "Incomplete Information in Monetary Policy Games: Rules Rather Than a Conservative Central Banker," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 33-47, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:45:y:1998:i:1:p:33-47

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beetsma, Roel M W J & Jensen, Henrik, 1998. "Inflation Targets and Contracts with Uncertain Central Banker Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 384-403, August.
    2. Chortareas, Georgios E & Miller, Stephen M, 2003. "Central Banker Contracts, Incomplete Information, and Monetary Policy Surprises: In Search of a Selfish Central Banker?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 116(3-4), pages 271-295, September.
    3. Muscatelli, V Anton, 1998. "Political Consensus, Uncertain Preferences, and Central Bank Independence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 412-430, July.

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