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The division of revenues from unexpected demand shocks

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  • Paulo Bastos
  • Natália P. Monteiro
  • Odd Rune Straume

Abstract

We exploit gaps between observed and recently forecasted GDP growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer–employee panel data, we find that the revenues from these demand shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, especially close to the top of the within‐firm wage distribution. These wage responses occur in the form of both higher overtime payment and base wage increases. We also find significant increases in bonus‐related pay in firms managed by highly skilled managers, and the unequal average distribution of unexpected revenues is also mainly driven by wage effects in the same subset of firms. This suggests that the way in which revenues from unexpected demand shocks are transmitted to workers is significantly related to managerial capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Bastos & Natália P. Monteiro & Odd Rune Straume, 2026. "The division of revenues from unexpected demand shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 128(1), pages 33-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:128:y:2026:i:1:p:33-72
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12589
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