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European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks

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  • Michael M. Hutchison

Abstract

Financial stability in Europe has received renewed attention with the advent of EMU. This paper examines whether EU country banking systems are particularly vulnerable to systemic risk. Our approach is to explore episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of countries, highlighting the experience of the EU. We estimate multivariate probit models linking the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics such as aspects of bank supervision and regulation, restrictions on bank portfolios, and development of the banking system. Given these characteristics, the model predicts a low probability of banking sector distress in EMU countries. JEL classification: G21; E44; F41

Suggested Citation

  • Michael M. Hutchison, 2002. "European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 365-389, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:3:p:365-389
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9442.00292
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    Cited by:

    1. Wil Martens & Prem W. S. Yapa & Maryam Safari, 2020. "The Impact of Financial Statement Comparability on Earnings Management: Evidence from Frontier Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, November.
    2. Ward, Felix, 2014. "Spotting the Danger Zone - Forecasting Financial Crises with Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 01/2014, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    3. Kpégo Didier Anatole Gbenou, 2018. "Modélisation de la prévision du stress financier du système bancaire des pays de l'UEMOA: Evidence empirique du rôle des facteurs institutionnels," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 264-277, September.
    4. Xuefang Liu & W. Robert J. Alexander & Sajid Anwar, 2018. "Bank Runs in China: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 17(1), pages 15-30, June.
    5. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Rudolfs Bems & Kristian Jönsson Hartelius, 2006. "Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 179-209, January.
    7. Muhammad Kashif & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Khurram Iftikhar, 2016. "Loan growth and bank solvency: evidence from the Pakistani banking sector," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Wil Martens & Prem Yapa & Maryam Safari, 2021. "Earnings Management in Frontier Market: Do Institutional Settings Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Nafis Alam & Ganesh Sivarajah & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "Do Deposit Insurance Systems Promote Banking Stability?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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