IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v69y2023i3p581-605.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying Bias and Inaccuracy of Upper‐Level Aggregation in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for Germany and the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Julika Herzberg
  • Thomas A. Knetsch
  • Patrick Schwind
  • Sebastian Weinand

Abstract

Current measurement practices of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) produce an upward bias of about one‐ninth of a percentage point in German inflation due to changing consumption being disregarded and preliminary data being used in the compilation of expenditure weights. The statistical uncertainty produced by these sources of mismeasurement can be illustrated by an interdecile range of about one‐quarter of a percentage point. The annual updating of the quantity component of the weights, implemented in 2012, has reduced the substitution component, making the disregard of changing consumption virtually a non‐issue for the euro area HICP. The measurement of the German HICP is impaired by the extrapolation of expenditure weights. The use of preliminary national accounts data since 2012 has not led to an improvement. This source of mismeasurement is likely to be relevant for the euro area HICP as well but cannot be quantified due to data constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Julika Herzberg & Thomas A. Knetsch & Patrick Schwind & Sebastian Weinand, 2023. "Quantifying Bias and Inaccuracy of Upper‐Level Aggregation in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for Germany and the Euro Area," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 581-605, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:69:y:2023:i:3:p:581-605
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12602
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12602
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roiw.12602?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan Crawford, 1998. "Measurement biases in the Canadian CPI: An update," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Spring), pages 39-56.
    2. Enikő Gábor‐Tóth & Philip Vermeulen, 2019. "Elementary Index Bias: Evidence for the Euro Area from a Large Scanner Dataset," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 618-656, November.
    3. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox, 2022. "Measuring real consumption and consumer price index bias under lockdown conditions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 480-502, February.
    4. David E. Lebow & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2003. "Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 159-201, March.
    5. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    6. Paul Armknecht & Mick Silver, 2014. "Post-Laspeyres: The Case for a New Formula for Compiling Consumer Price Indexes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(2), pages 225-244, June.
    7. Manser, Marilyn E & McDonald, Richard J, 1988. "An Analysis of Substitution Bias in Measuring Inflation, 1959-85," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 909-930, July.
    8. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    9. Hoffmann, Johannes, 1998. "Problems of inflation measurement in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,01e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. repec:ptu:bdpart:b199706 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herzberg, Julika & Knetsch, Thomas A. & Schwind, Patrick & Weinand, Sebastian, 2021. "Quantifying bias and inaccuracy of upper-level aggregation in HICPs for Germany and the euro area," Discussion Papers 06/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Silver, Mick & Heravi, Saeed, 2005. "A Failure in the Measurement of Inflation: Results From a Hedonic and Matched Experiment Using Scanner Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 269-281, July.
    3. Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay & Bharat Ramaswami, 2022. "The representative agent bias in cost of living indices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 155-178, January.
    4. Lieu, Pang-Tien & Liang, Jung-Hui & Chen, Jui-Hui, 2008. "Consumer preferences and cost of living in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 224-235, June.
    5. Christian Broda & Ephraim Leibtag & David E. Weinstein, 2009. "The Role of Prices in Measuring the Poor's Living Standards," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 77-97, Spring.
    6. R. A. Somerville, 2004. "Changes in Relative Consumer Prices and the Substitution Bias of the Laspeyres Price Index - Ireland, 1985-2001," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 55-82.
    7. Patrick Sillard & Lionel Wilner, 2015. "Constant utility index and inter-month substitution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1772-1781.
    8. Ambrose, Brent W. & Coulson, N. Edward & Yoshida, Jiro, 2017. "Inflation Rates Are Very Different When Housing Rents Are Accurately Measured," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 71, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Tsuyoshi Sasaki, 2019. "Welfare evaluations and price indices with path dependency problems," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 52(1), pages 127-159, January.
    10. Huffman, Wallace, 2004. "Marketizing U.S. Production in the Post-War Era: Implications for Estimating CPI Bias and Real Income from a Complete-Household-Demand System," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11987, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Kovács, Ilona, 2003. "A fogyasztói árindex torzító tényezői [Distorting factors in the consumer price index]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 702-719.
    12. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Wieland, Elisabeth & Mehrhoff, Jens, 2022. "Estimating the impact of quality adjustment on consumer price inflation," Discussion Papers 49/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Libor Dusek & Lubomir Lizal (ed.), 2011. "CERGE-EI Tackles Transition," CERGE-EI Books, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague, edition 1, number b05, May.
    14. Bajari, P. & Cen, Z. & Chernozhukov, V. & Manukonda, M. & Vijaykumar, S. & Wang, J. & Huerta, R. & Li, J. & Leng, L. & Monokroussos, G. & Wang, S., 2025. "Hedonic prices and quality adjusted price indices powered by AI," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    15. Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K, 2004. "Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, October.
    16. M. Martin Boyer, 2003. "Is the Demand for Corporate Insurance a Habit? Evidence from Directors' and Officers' Insurance," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-42, CIRANO.
    17. Huffman, Wallace, 2006. "The Story Behind the Post-War Decline in Women's Housework: Prices, Income, Family Size, and Technology Effects in a Demand System," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12601, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. W. Erwin Diewert, 2022. "Scanner Data, Elementary Price Indexes and the Chain Drift Problem," Springer Books, in: Duangkamon Chotikapanich & Alicia N. Rambaldi & Nicholas Rohde (ed.), Advances in Economic Measurement, chapter 0, pages 445-606, Springer.
    19. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "Is There a Desirable Rate of Inflation? A Theoretical and Empirical Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 49-83, May.
    20. Goldman, Dana P. & Sood, Neeraj & Leibowitz, Arleen, 2005. "The reallocation of compensation in response to health insurance premium increases," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 147-151, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:69:y:2023:i:3:p:581-605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.