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Trend Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for Newly Industrializing and Newly Exporting Countries


  • Alba, Joseph D
  • Papell, David H


We examine trend breaks and unit roots in aggregate and per capita real GDP for nine newly industrializing (NIC) and newly exporting (NEC) countries in east and southeast Asia. In 15 of the 18 cases, we reject the unit-root hypothesis in favor of trend stationarity with breaks. Our findings allow us to trace the growth paths of these NICs and NECs. While the shifts are due to both external and internal factors, most of the breaks are country specific and can be partly attributed to changes in government policies. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Alba, Joseph D & Papell, David H, 1995. "Trend Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for Newly Industrializing and Newly Exporting Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 264-274, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:3:y:1995:i:3:p:264-74

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Glenn Jenkins, 1985. "Costs And Consequences Of The New Protectionism: The Case Of Canada’S Clothing Sector," Development Discussion Papers 1985-04, JDI Executive Programs.
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    5. Dawkins, Christina & Srinivasan, T.N. & Whalley, John, 2001. "Calibration," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 58, pages 3653-3703 Elsevier.
    6. Hamilton, Carl, 1986. "An Assessment of Voluntary Restraints on Hong Kong Exports to Europe and the USA," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(211), pages 339-350, August.
    7. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    8. Falvey, Rodney E, 1979. "The Composition of Trade within Import-restricted Product Categories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1105-1114, October.
    9. Carl B. Hamilton, 1988. "Restrictiveness and International Transmission of the "New" Protectionism," NBER Chapters,in: Issues in US-EC Trade Relations, pages 201-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2004. "Random walks and non-linear paths in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications," Chapters,in: Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shahbaz Shabbir , Muhammad, 2012. "Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary in SAARC Countries?," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 1(1), pages 1-5.
    3. Pui Sun Tam & University of Macau, 2006. "Breaking trend panel unit root tests," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 341, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
    5. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.

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