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Aggregate Uncertainty, Forward Looking Behaviour and the Demand for Manufacturing Labour in the UK


  • Price, Simon


Theory suggests that the level of uncertainty may affect the output and employment decisions of firms, although in general the sign of the effect is ambiguous. A GARCH-M estimator is used to model the conditional variance of GDP. This measure is then employed in backward- and forward-looking specifications of the demand for manufacturing labor. The results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing employment and that the forward-looking dynamic specification may be rejected against a backward-looking alternative. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Price, Simon, 1994. "Aggregate Uncertainty, Forward Looking Behaviour and the Demand for Manufacturing Labour in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 267-283, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:3:p:267-83

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kevin M. Murphy & Finis Welch, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326.
    2. Barry T. Hirsch, 1982. "The Interindustry Structure of Unionism, Earnings, and Earnings Dispersion," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(1), pages 22-39, October.
    3. Stewart, Mark B, 1987. "Collective Bargaining Arrangements, Closed Shops and Relative Pay," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 140-156, March.
    4. Stewart, Mark B, 1991. "Union Wage Differentials in the Face of Changes in the Economic and Legal Environment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(230), pages 155-172, May.
    5. Steven J. Davis, 1992. "Cross-Country Patterns of Change in Relative Wages," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 239-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1992. "Minimum Wages," CEP Discussion Papers dp0080, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-1381, September.
    8. Stewart, Mark B, 1983. "Relative Earnings and Individual Union Membership in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(198), pages 111-125, May.
    9. Lawrence F. Katz & Gary W. Loveman & David G. Blanchflower, 1993. "A Comparison of Changes in the Structure of Wages," NBER Working Papers 4297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard B. Freeman, 1980. "Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 34(1), pages 3-23, October.
    11. Richard B. Freeman, 1982. "Union Wage Practices and Wage Dispersion within Establishments," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(1), pages 3-21, October.
    12. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-442, June.
    13. Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "How Much Has De-Unionisation Contributed to the Rise in Male Earnings Inequality?," NBER Working Papers 3826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    2. Dutta Roy, Sudipta, 2004. "Employment dynamics in Indian industry: adjustment lags and the impact of job security regulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 233-256, February.
    3. Murray, Jonathan & Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Quality, user cost, forward-looking behavior, and the demand for cars in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 237-258, May.
    4. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, "undated". "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Stuart Glosser & Lonnie Golden, 2005. "Is labour becoming more or less flexible? Changing dynamic behaviour and asymmetries of labour input in US manufacturing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 535-557, July.

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