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Aggregate Uncertainty, Forward Looking Behaviour and the Demand for Manufacturing Labour in the UK

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  • Price, Simon

Abstract

Theory suggests that the level of uncertainty may affect the output and employment decisions of firms, although in general the sign of the effect is ambiguous. A GARCH-M estimator is used to model the conditional variance of GDP. This measure is then employed in backward- and forward-looking specifications of the demand for manufacturing labor. The results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing employment and that the forward-looking dynamic specification may be rejected against a backward-looking alternative. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Price, Simon, 1994. "Aggregate Uncertainty, Forward Looking Behaviour and the Demand for Manufacturing Labour in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 267-283, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:3:p:267-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    2. Dutta Roy, Sudipta, 2004. "Employment dynamics in Indian industry: adjustment lags and the impact of job security regulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 233-256, February.
    3. Murray, Jonathan & Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Quality, user cost, forward-looking behavior, and the demand for cars in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 237-258, May.
    4. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, "undated". "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Discussion Papers 00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Stuart Glosser & Lonnie Golden, 2005. "Is labour becoming more or less flexible? Changing dynamic behaviour and asymmetries of labour input in US manufacturing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 535-557, July.

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