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The Non‐Observed Economy in Portugal: The monetary model and the MIMIC model

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  • Cláudia Soares
  • Óscar Afonso

Abstract

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cláudia Soares & Óscar Afonso, 2019. "The Non‐Observed Economy in Portugal: The monetary model and the MIMIC model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 172-208, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:70:y:2019:i:1:p:172-208
    DOI: 10.1111/meca.12235
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    Cited by:

    1. Bashlakova, Volga & Bashlakov, Henadzi, 2021. "The study of the shadow economy in modern conditions: Theory, methodology, practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 468-480.
    2. Bennihi, Aymen Salah & Bouriche, Lahcene & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "The informal economy in Algeria: New insights using the MIMIC approach and the interaction with the formal economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 470-491.

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