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Robust Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix

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  • Amine Ismail
  • Huyên Pham

Abstract

This paper studies a robust continuous‐time Markowitz portfolio selection problem where the model uncertainty affects the covariance matrix of multiple risky assets. This problem is formulated into a min–max mean‐variance problem over a set of nondominated probability measures that is solved by a McKean–Vlasov dynamic programming approach, which allows us to characterize the solution in terms of a Bellman–Isaacs equation in the Wasserstein space of probability measures. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal robust portfolio strategies and illustrate our results in the case of uncertain volatilities and ambiguous correlation between two risky assets. We then derive the robust efficient frontier in closed form, and obtain a lower bound for the Sharpe ratio of any robust efficient portfolio strategy. Finally, we compare the performance of Sharpe ratios for a robust investor and for an investor with a misspecified model.

Suggested Citation

  • Amine Ismail & Huyên Pham, 2019. "Robust Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 174-207, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:mathfi:v:29:y:2019:i:1:p:174-207
    DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12169
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William Lefebvre & Gregoire Loeper & Huy^en Pham, 2020. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with tracking error penalization," Papers 2009.08214, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    2. Ben-Zhang Yang & Xiaoping Lu & Guiyuan Ma & Song-Ping Zhu, 2020. "Robust Portfolio Optimization with Multi-Factor Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 264-298, July.
    3. Willliam Lefebvre & Gregoire Loeper & Huyên Pham, 2020. "Mean-variance portfolio selection with tracking error penalization," Working Papers hal-02941289, HAL.
    4. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Enzo Miller & Huyên Pham, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio selection for multivariate affine and quadratic Volterra models," Post-Print hal-02877569, HAL.
    5. Carmine De Franco & Johann Nicolle & Huyên Pham, 2019. "Bayesian Learning For The Markowitz Portfolio Selection Problem," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-40, November.
    6. William Lefebvre & Grégoire Loeper & Huyên Pham, 2020. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Tracking Error Penalization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-23, November.
    7. Bingyan Han & Chi Seng Pun & Hoi Ying Wong, 2021. "Robust state-dependent mean–variance portfolio selection: a closed-loop approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 529-561, July.
    8. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2020. "Duality Theory for Robust Utility Maximisation," Papers 2007.08376, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    9. Jin Yuan & Xianghui Yuan, 2023. "A Best Linear Empirical Bayes Method for High-Dimensional Covariance Matrix Estimation," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    10. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Enzo Miller & Huy^en Pham, 2020. "Markowitz portfolio selection for multivariate affine and quadratic Volterra models," Papers 2006.13539, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    11. Bingyan Han, 2022. "Distributionally robust risk evaluation with a causality constraint and structural information," Papers 2203.10571, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    12. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Enzo Miller & Huyên Pham, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio selection for multivariate affine and quadratic Volterra models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02877569, HAL.
    13. Ren'e Aid & Ofelia Bonesini & Giorgia Callegaro & Luciano Campi, 2021. "A McKean-Vlasov game of commodity production, consumption and trading," Papers 2111.04391, arXiv.org.
    14. Masashi Ieda, 2022. "Continuous-Time Portfolio Optimization for Absolute Return Funds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 675-696, December.
    15. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Enzo Miller & Huyên Pham, 2020. "Markowitz portfolio selection for multivariate affine and quadratic Volterra models," Working Papers hal-02877569, HAL.
    16. Maximilien Germain & Mathieu Laurière & Huyên Pham & Xavier Warin, 2022. "DeepSets and their derivative networks for solving symmetric PDEs ," Post-Print hal-03154116, HAL.
    17. Nicole Bauerle & An Chen, 2022. "Optimal investment under partial information and robust VaR-type constraint," Papers 2212.04394, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    18. Ivan Guo & Nicolas Langrené & Gregoire Loeper & Wei Ning, 2020. "Robust utility maximization under model uncertainty via a penalization approach," Working Papers hal-02910261, HAL.
    19. Shuzhen Yang, 2020. "Discrete time multi-period mean-variance model: Bellman type strategy and Empirical analysis," Papers 2011.10966, arXiv.org.

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