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Real Interest Rates And Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Indexed Bonds


  • Michael Bleaney

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Douglas Laxton

    (International Monetary Fund)


Uncovered interest parity has found little empirical support at short horizons.Subtracting expected inflation differentials from both sides of the uncovered interestparity relationship implies a similar relationship between real interest rate differentials and expected real exchange rate movements. Previous empirical work that has attemptedto test for this relationship has found little empirical support. Using measures of real interest rates derived from indexed bonds, we find that real exchange ratesmove in the direction predicted by real interest rate differentials, and that previousnegative results are probably attributable to errors in estimating inflation expectations. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bleaney & Douglas Laxton, 2003. "Real Interest Rates And Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Indexed Bonds," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 65-77, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:71:y:2003:i:1:p:65-77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Garry J. Schinasi & Willy W. Hoffmaister, 1994. "Asset Prices, Financial Liberalization, and the Process of Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 94/153, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhagwan Chowdhry & Richard Roll & Yihong Xia, 2005. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 255-276, March.
    2. Papa M N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff; Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Guy M Meredith & Yue Ma, 2002. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited," IMF Working Papers 02/28, International Monetary Fund.

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